Weekend Impact - May 4, 2025
Donald Trump’s Polls Are Tanking. We Call That A "Sam Brownback Problem"
Trump’s second term is hitting turbulence: collapsing poll numbers, disillusioned voters, and a thin legislative record. It all looks familiar to strategists in Kansas. Voters are watching more news, and aren’t amused or entertained by it all. And don’t miss how academic geofencing studies uncovered a way polls might be missing key behavioral patterns.
Donald Trump’s Got A Sam Brownback Problem
Many GPS Impact staff and alumni cut their teeth fighting Sam Brownback in Kansas at one time or another—so this comparison in The Washington Monthly hit hard. Nate Weisberg draws a sharp parallel between Brownback’s tax-slashing experiment and Trump’s second-term agenda. He argues that Kansas Democrats’ response offers a roadmap for national resistance—and an evergreen reminder that more people should be paying attention to Gov. Laura Kelly.
The Kansas/MAGA Test Case: Brownback promised supply-side growth through deep tax cuts and government rollbacks. Instead, revenues collapsed, public schools shortened their academic years, and highway safety projects were shelved. “This is the worst I’ve ever seen it,” one rural superintendent told Bloomberg in 2015.
The Political Cost: Brownback’s approval sank from 55% to 22%. Moderate Republicans broke ranks, repealed his tax plan, and voters ousted his allies. Democrats like Laura Kelly campaigned on restoring basic services—and won.
Why It Resonates Now: Trump’s early second-term moves—tariffs, department shutdowns, aggressive executive orders—echo Brownback’s agenda but are unfolding faster and with broader reach. As former Kansas House Majority Leader Don Hineman put it: “What’s happening on the national level is pretty much a replay of what happened to Kansas between 2012 and 2018.”
The Lesson for Democrats: Weisberg notes that backlash in Kansas didn’t arrive until families felt the impact—crowded classrooms, higher grocery taxes, dangerous roads. Kelly’s team won not on ideology, but on fixing what voters could see and touch. And the Brownback hangover continues: Kelly’s most effective ad in her 2018 reelection was a clip of her opponent saying Brownback “was a good governor.”
Nate Weisberg, Washington Monthly | “Donald Trump Is Following the Sam Brownback Playbook,” April 28, 2025
What Trump’s Historically Weak Approval Means for Dems
Veteran Democratic strategists Mark Mellman and Margie Omero agree: Trump is losing altitude fast. Approval ratings are tanking, former supporters are turning, and key parts of his agenda are deeply unpopular. But they also warn Democrats not to confuse Trump’s weakness with their own strength.
Poll crash with real consequences: Mellman ties Trump’s 43% approval to a weakening grip on Congress and the GOP: “Presidents’ political power is directly proportional to their approval ratings.” His conclusion: swing-district Republicans face growing exposure.
Focus groups reveal disillusionment: Omero hears frustration from 2024 Trump voters: “He’s doing what he said he’s doing—but does he realize who he’s hurting?” Another: “They’re so worried about being anti-woke, they forget we need a stronger economy.”
Discontent ≠ trust: Omero warns that despite Trump’s unpopularity, Democrats aren’t winning on core issues. Navigator polling finds Dems and the GOP tied on jobs, inflation, and taxes. In her words: “The Democratic brand is still deeply challenged.”
Message test: Lead with what’s broken: Omero advises grounding Democratic messaging in shared dissatisfaction: “Messaging works better when it first acknowledges the tax system, or our immigration system, or our health care system are broken.”
Margie Omero Substack | “After Dozens Of Focus Groups With Trump Voters, Here's What I've Learned,” April 29, 2025
Mark Mellman | “Big troubles lie ahead for Trump,” The Hill, April 30, 2025
This Time, It’s Not Trump-tainment
Americans are following political news at high rates—and a new Pew survey finds most are motivated by concern and personal impact, not partisanship or media narratives. Americans aren’t treating the Trump administration as entertainment or political theater—they’re watching closely because they believe it affects their lives. The findings offer a clear path for communicators: don’t hold back and explain why it matters.
People Are Paying More Attention: Four in ten U.S. adults say they’re now following political news more closely than before Trump took office in January. Just 10% say they’re paying less attention.
Relevance Is a Universal Trigger: Among those paying close attention, 62% cite personal relevance as a major reason—matching the 66% who say they’re concerned about what the administration is doing. It’s the only motivator shared equally by Republicans and Democrats.
Why Others Tune Out: Among the 30% not following closely, only 15% say it’s because the news isn’t relevant to them. The bigger reasons are exhaustion (49%) and general political disengagement (48%). Even among the tuned-out, relevance isn’t dismissed—it’s just drowned out.
Trump vs. the Press, Fading but Fractious: Just 36% say they’ve heard a lot about Trump’s relationship with the media—down from 72% in 2017. But 64% still say the relationship is bad. Democrats see Trump as too hostile; Republicans say the media is too critical.
Pew Research | “Most Americans Say They Are Tuned In to News About the Trump Administration,” March 31, 2025
The Risks of Trump’s Executive-Only Strategy
In his first 100 days back in office, Trump has signed fewer laws than any modern president—and it’s by design. With congressional cooperation limited and legal boundaries stretched, Trump’s second-term goals rely on executive action over legislation. Here’s why that could backfire:
Historic Legislative Slowdown: Trump has signed just five bills—fewer than any president since Eisenhower. In his first term, he signed 30. Biden and Obama each signed more than 10 in their first 100 days.
No Coalition-Building: Trump “has shown no desire to work with [Democrats],” said Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ). Even GOP moderates are sidelined, weakening legislative durability and leaving vulnerable Republicans with little to campaign on.
Lack of Legislative Legitimacy: Unlike his first term wins, like the First Step Act or USMCA, Trump’s current agenda leans on executive reinterpretations and emergency declarations. Few policies have bipartisan authorship or staying power.
Congressional Rs are Both Sidelined And Complicit: Republicans may be betting they won’t be blamed for things they didn’t do, but failing to act revoke controversial tariffs will be noted by voters. And Senate Republicans have confirmed Cabinet picks who once would’ve been considered fringe with barely a side glance.
NBC News | “Trump signs few laws in first 100 days as he pushes to expand executive power,” April 29, 2025
Thou Shalt Not Lie To Your Pollster: Geofencing and Church Attendance
Surveys consistently claim about 20% of Americans attend church weekly. But research from Professor Devin Pope of the University of Chicago’s Business School using anonymized cellphone location data tells a different story. The results say a lot about how good poll respondents are at reporting their behavior, which has big implications for modeling, messaging, and buying strategies.
Self-Reports vs. Reality: While surveys suggest 20–30% of Americans attend church weekly, smartphone data shows the real figure is closer to 10–12%. Among Gen Z, it’s just 6%. This signals significant overreporting, especially among younger and non-urban adults.
Baseball-Truth Tested: To validate accuracy, researchers compared GPS counts at 125 pro sports stadiums against official ticketed attendance. Correlation: R = 0.98. For MLB, the average cellphone-based attendance (30,364) nearly matched the actual (30,313). The same data methods also closely tracked foot traffic at stores like Walmart and Target, and restaurants like McDonald’s and Olive Garden.
Partisan Gaps Are Shrinking: Worship remains more common in Trump counties, but attendance dropped faster there. The red-blue gap in worship rates has narrowed from 7.7 to 5.4 points since 2019.
Correlated by Income and Weather: Worship rates were higher in lower-income areas and dropped sharply on cold, rainy Sundays, showing how behavior varies by environment and conditions, not just identity. It’s a window into how campaigns could model turnout likelihood in specific ZIPs or weather patterns.
Behavior and Your Ad Buy: Partisan modeling and poll weighting still rely heavily on self-reported behavior. These approaches figure heavily into message targeting and content strategy. But with increasingly precise behavioral data available for ad geotargeting, the next challenge is squaring what people say they do as opposed with what they actually do?
Devin G. Pope, University of Chicago - Booth School of Business | “Religious Worship Attendance in America: Evidence from Cellphone Data,” March 2024